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September 21, 2012

2030: Obesity’s Next Frontier

Mark Friedel Staff Reporter

CLAREMORE — Over the next 20 years, the number of obese adults, along with related disease rates and health care costs, are projected to increase dramatically in every state, according to F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future 2012, a report released Tuesday by Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF).

Sixty-six percent of Oklahomans are on course to be obese by 2030, becoming the second most obese state in the United States, according to the report.
Oklahoma is currently number six at 31 percent behind Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia, Alabama and Michigan.
If the state’s obesity rate continues on its current trajectory, the number of type two diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke cases could increase ten times between 2010 and 2020 — and double again by 2030, according to TFAH.
Obesity could contribute to more than 6 million cases of type 2 diabetes, 5 million cases of coronary heart disease and stroke, and more than 400,000 cases of cancer in the next twenty years.
According to the report, by 2030, medical costs associated with treating preventable obesity-related diseases are estimated to increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year in the U.S. 
The loss in economic productivity could be between $390 billion and $580 billion annually.
The analysis also explored a scenario based on states successfully lowering adult obesesity rates
Reducing the average body mass index of Oklahoma residents by 5 percent would save the state $7,444,000,000 in health care costs by the year 2030. 
For a six-foot-tall person weighing 200 pounds, a 5 percent reduction in BMI would be equivalent to losing around 10 pounds.
A full report with state rankings in all categories is available on TFAH’s website at www.healthyamericans.org.

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